China Morning Missive

This, the Taiwan issue, is where the concept of a fourth communique comes into play. It’s also high time that the traditional media outlets finally began connecting what have been very obvious dots.

With each passing day, those at the levers of power in DC are coming to the realization that China has a stranglehold on the “Grand Bargain” negotiations. Frankly, this has been the dynamic ever since both parties slapped triple digits tariffs on each other. No matter the overwhelming evidence, the Beltway simply ignored this reality.

You can even see this on display when Sec Bessent noted China had made “aggressive asks” during the recent Madrid round of talks. Taiwan was undoubtedly one of those asks. The same, too, for a lifting of certain tariffs and export controls.

The American side sought to hold firm on its positions. The Chinese side would have just shrugged and played for time with the complete knowledge that there is nothing the Trump team can actually do.

Access to rare earths remain a sticking point. Now there’s daily handwringing over China’s refusal to purchase soybeans. Understand that these are just the tip of the spear. There are dozens of pressure points China can apply.

American capitulation is simply a matter of time.

But China isn’t just asking for well choreographed speeches and platitudes. This is where a fourth communique comes into play.

American administrations come and go and the policies of one can be reversed by another. Beijing knows this all too well and for any material agreement to be reached will require a codified (fourth communique) agreement.

The politics for the Trump team are abysmal. Then again, so is a cascade of farmer bankruptcies not to mention a host of other second and third order effects. Pick your poison, right?

What this WSJ piece does highlight is (finally) a recognition of just how strong China’s position is in these negotiations. The end game is know. All that remains is how Washington will end up spinning the outcome.

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-xi-talks-china-taiwan-8ed82d1b?st=o3Hnq4&reflink=article_copyURL_share